The following is a simple copy and paste of the land use element basis draft as it currently exists. This largely inventories where Horry County stands with some statistical projections. The graphics, unfortunately, did not, in general, reproduce. They will be included as part of the final land use element product of the steering committee that will be published on the county Web site.

Click here to return to the April 5 proceedings.

To maintain a community with a healthy economic base and provide services for our residents and visitors, a diversity of land uses should be provided that include schools, parks (both active recreation areas and passive open space) community centers, residential uses for different socioeconomic levels, and retail, commercial and employment centers to serve these residential areas. Public infrastructure such as streets, trails, paths, water, sewer and utilities are needed to serve these land uses. The Land Use Element and its maps indicate the general distribution, location, type, and relationship of all of these land uses.

The Envision 2025 land use element represents a synthesis of all the elements of the Comprehensive plan and provides a means to guide future growth in the County. The Element is structured into two central components; current and future land use.

The first component examines existing land use categories and provides an inventory and analysis of residential, recreation and entertainment, sales and service, industrial, institutional, public and environmentally sensitive land uses. It also provides an examination of land cover data such as soils and wetlands to determine current environmental conditions throughout the County. Additionally, transportation, zoning and building permit data are considered in the overall analysis of current conditions.

The second component includes an overarching future land use strategy, future land use map and classifications, and goals, policies and strategies. The future land use strategy identifies and recommends locations where sustainable growth is encouraged, thereby limiting negative impacts to the social, economic and ecological context of the community and environment. The future land use strategy also identifies types of human settlements within the County and focuses on these areas in determining suitable locations for future land uses and growth. The identified areas are on the Future Land Use Map, which also incorporates the future land uses as defined by local municipalities. The goals, policies and strategies present a course of action that acknowledges appropriate land uses based on environmental limitations, existing and historical development patterns, the availability of services and infrastructure, and citizen preferences identified through the planning process.

The Land Use Element is an objective spatial representation of the goals and objectives alliterated by the other elements of the Comprehensive Plan and stated implementation strategies through 2025. With Horry County’s rich history and rapid growth patterns over the past decades, the possibilities for the use of land in this County are endless. It is vital that the goals, policies and strategies for producing the best Horry County possible are in place in order to enhance the quality of life for residents, businesses and visitors alike while protecting the natural order that has made this region what it is today.

Named after Revolutionary War hero Peter Horry the face and primary uses of the land in Horry County have changed significantly since its founding in 1801.

Surrounded by the Lumber and Little Pee Dee Rivers as well as the Atlantic Ocean, Horry County’s proud reference as the "Independent Republic" stems from the fact that this land was unreachable to anybody from the landside for a long time. Its geographic isolation and diverse natural resources and landscapes made Horry County a unique place for many different people who have settled here. From second sons of English noblemen to pirates and fishermen, fur traders, loggers (Picture 1) and farmers, the beauty and the wealth of the land have attracted people ever since and has spurred the development of settlements throughout the territory.

Picture 1: 19^{th century logging crew (Photo courtesy of Horry County Museum)}

Picture 2: Train service on Main Street in Conway (Photo courtesy of Horry County Museum)

The economic turmoil led to the closure of most of the naval shipyards along the Waccamaw River, and its effect on the local employment and income situation was bad but somewhat compensated by the growing popularity and suitability of planting tobacco (Picture 3).

Picture 3: Tobacco barn Picture 4: Burroughs shipyard in Bucksport

(Photos courtesy of Horry County Museum)

A short time after the commencement of railroad transportation, the first hotel named "Seaside Inn" opened (Picture 5). That event marked the start of the Grand Strand’s growing popularity as a vacation destination, spurring tourist-orientated development all along the seashore.

Picture 5: The early "Seaside Inn" (Photo courtesy of Horry County Museum)

The growing importance of the automobile as a means of transportation led to increased highway construction in Horry County that improved accessibility even more. Also the opening of the Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway, which originally was planned to enhance homeland security from the sea indirectly contributed to the growing attractiveness of the area as a vacation destination.

Since the 1950’s the importance of the tourist industry in Horry County has grown substantially to become the main revenue generator and land use converter. Over the years the tourist industry, which started out in Myrtle Beach, has spread geographically all across the County creating a diverse mix of land uses. Very influential to the reputation of the Grand Strand are the countless world-class golf courses with their upscale lodging and residential communities. Horry County’s mild climate and diverse natural resources offer a multitude of opportunities for many outdoor activities as well as shopping, dining, and other leisure activities.

In addition, the generally lower cost of living has enticed many people, especially from the Northeast, to retire or relocate here. As much as this development is beneficiary to the County’s economy and standard of living, the increased conversion of natural sensitive and rural land in all parts of Horry County is threatening its unique character and livability.

Those who live, work and play in Horry County take advantage of the tremendous variation of landscapes at their disposal. From coastal beaches to inland waterways, a full spectrum of natural environments can be found. These natural landscapes are complemented by urban areas located just a short drive away. Throughout the County and within a short drive; farmland gives way to suburbia, suburbia becomes city center and the process reverses; urban corridors transition into rural landscapes marked by dense forests, farmland, wetlands, and fresh vegetable and fruit stands. Indeed, Horry County is a diverse patchwork of people, places and activities. The current land use inventory and analysis captures some of this diversity in terms of how residents, visitors and businesses engage in their natural surroundings and organize the space for live, work and play.

Included in this section is a brief discussion of two significant physical factors that shape the use of land; water and soils. Water is a major physical feature that influences land use, value, land development, design, and the overall layout of the built and unbuilt environments. Soils also have a tremendous impact on the use of land in Horry County. Soil types in the County typically have physical properties that limit development options and support functionality of the natural landscape.

Also included in this analysis is another significant shaper of land use; the transportation network. Like other factors that influence how land is used, roads contribute to both the type of development as well as the intensity. For example, an urban corridor, such as U.S. 501, is appropriate for large-scale commercial development. The urban corridor is also at the top of the street hierarchy, meaning a series of roads branch off of the main arterial (501) to accommodate other, less intense land uses such as housing (Carolina Forest Boulevard).

The current land use analysis and inventory includes a great deal of information concerning zoning and permitting. The analysis uses compiled rezoning data back to 1999 and building permit information dating back to 1988. The rezoning data is particularly useful in that it details the consequences of the County’s zoning actions from the 1980’s. The building permit information is also important because it establishes a development timeline, adding legitimacy to the often-stated notion that the County has seen "explosive growth" over the past decade.

The current land use analysis and inventory is structured to provide a base analysis of the relationship between the people and the land. As such, much of this section focuses on establishing a baseline measurement for future endeavors. Following the discussion of zoning and building permit data is an inventory and analysis of land use classifications in Horry County. The current land use map is based on a predefined set of major land uses that capture the relationship between the population and physical landscape. Current land use classifications include Conservation/Preservation, Rural Conservation, Rural Residential, Suburban Residential, Urban Residential, Mixed, Sales and Service, Institutional, Recreation and Entertainment, Industrial, Public and Government, and Utility. These twelve (12) predefined land use classifications broadly define the interactions between people and place, as well as a spectrum of physical environments ranging from natural to built. In all, the current land use definitions and map act as

springboard into the future and are the basis for projecting how we use the land over the next 18 years.

Water, more than any other physical feature, defines the use of land in Horry County. The "Independent Republic" namesake of the County is a manifestation of the existence of a tremendous amount of water. Bordered on one side by the Atlantic Ocean, access to Horry County from all other regions of South Carolina requires traversing the Pee Dee River. Once inside the County, the Pee Dee, Waccamaw River and Intracoastal Waterway create a spider web entanglement of wetlands and swamps that cover approximately 45% of the land. The presence of so much water means the County is a biologically diverse landscape that is home to a tremendous variety of animal and plant communities. This diversity has always played a central part in attracting residents, businesses and visitors to the Grand Strand, and all have capitalized on the existence of this natural resource. Indeed, water has always been the main attraction, be it for pirates, fishermen or tourists. It is imperative that the Land Use Element recognizes the central role of water in guiding development in the County.

The following is the definition of wetlands as stated by the United States Fish and Wildife Service National Wetland Inventory.

The abundance of water has and will continue to be a major factor in determining the use of land in Horry County. It is important that government, residents, businesses and visitors respect and treat water as essential infrastructure. Water not only ensures ecological biodiversity and watershed function, it is also the basis for economic growth

and a key component to the value of property. In all, water is a means to secure and proliferate the health, safety and future economic prosperity of Horry County.

In conjunction with the hydrologic character of the County, most soil types are made up of a varying combination of the main substances of sand, loam or clay. Additionally, lands in the coastal region typically have a water table at or near the surface and most soil types in Horry County have bad drainage and water-absorption characteristics. When considering how land may be used, soil is a significant variable in the equation.

According to the USDA National Resource Conservation Service, 27 out of a total of 29 occurring soil types in Horry County are neither suitable for residential nor for commercial development. High soil acidity is the leading culprit behind this statistic as it causes medium to high risk for corrosion of unprotected steel and/or concrete. Furthermore, 17 of all soil types are rated limited to very limited for their capability of sustaining small commercial buildings or even residential dwellings without basements due to limited soil stability resulting from shallow depth to water saturated zones within the soil. Other causes for the limited suitability of the land are unfavorable shrinking and swelling habits of the soil type as well as general flooding concerns. While these factors are important when considering development patterns, it is difficult to use the data for any meaningful discussion in regards to where growth should occur. Certain soil characteristics can be mitigated, for instance treated concrete and steel can be used in soils that display a high acidity, or residential units can be built on taller foundations, thereby removing the possibility of flooding as a result of soil type. Above all, it is important to remember that together, water and soil create an exceptional place where Carolina bays, American Alligators, black waters and Bald Cypress are the norm. Indeed, Horry County has unique natural landscapes that deserve the utmost respect when considering where to develop human activities and uses.

Road infrastructure has significant impacts on the utilization of land and the intensity of development throughout the County. Consider U.S. 501, the County’s Land

Development Regulations characterize the highway as an "Arterial". The arterial creates a lower order street system, shown in the table below.

Road capacity and design are dictated by and are the result of land use. U.S. 501 in the example above creates a hierarchical system of streets branching off of it that serve as access points for less intense land use. The arterial in this example, 501, created access to both sides of the right-of-way for less intense land uses such as residential. The placement of commercial along the main arterial requires residential development to support it. The land uses that are established as a result of the arterial and the ensuing commercial development are typically residential or less intense commercial. These uses in turn require access to the higher order transportation system. As such, the road network is established according to the table above. In terms of land use, the current road hierarchy serves as a tool that assists with not only determining current development patterns, but also with projecting where growth will occur in the future.

Capacity ratios are an excellent resource for gauging the effects of extraordinary population growth on existing infrastructure. The table below captures 2005 data that details capacity for some of the most important roads in the County.

The Volume/Capacity Ratio range is attained by taking the lowest and highest traffic count numbers from the Department of Transportation for 2005, then dividing those with the established level of service capacity standard numbers in accordance with the road type and number of lanes. According to the table above, U.S. 17 Bypass, U.S. 17 Business, U.S. 701 and U.S. 707 were above capacity in 2005. These ratios have continued to steadily increase, and many citizens are already aware of the dangerous conditions that exist as a result of congestion. Highway 707 is especially troublesome in regards to current land use. Since 2005, property rezoned along the 707 corridor has the ability to accommodate 1,556 residential units of varying density and type. Since 2005, 940 residential units have been permitted along the corridor. When considering the impacts roads have on land use, capacity seems to have no bearing on the decision to rezone or permit for a specific use such as housing.

Horry County maintains approximately 900 miles of unpaved roads, 519 miles of paved roads, 2,400 miles of drainage and approximately 67 bridges. This does not include any State or federal highways as part of the maintenance system. The primary goals and objectives of the County are to provide a more efficient, highly productive road maintenance and construction program; increase the County’s ability to pave more roads and improve maintenance standards and techniques; provide an infrastructure for stormwater management; and to provide efficient infrastructure for the County.

Whether or not initial construction costs are borne by developers or by the County, oftentimes once built, road maintenance becomes the County’s responsibility. Through an infrastructure valuation analysis completed in 2006 (and modified current as of January 2007), there is a $394,419,312 replacement cost value attached to 1,419 total miles of arterial, collector, access and dirt roads. This valuation also includes bridges. Because of recent government accounting laws requiring values of these assets, and the limited amount of information that is available detailed dates and costs of initial construction, these values are best estimates only. The balanced revenues and expenditures (budgeted costs) for maintenance for fiscal years 2004-2007 are as follows:

FY 2004 $13,026,057

FY 2005 $15,982,333

FY 2006 $15,458,433

FY 2007 $ 8,372,292

Of the paved and improved roads in Horry County, approximately 20 percent are in substandard condition. The main goal in the FY 2006-2007 budget is to construct and pave 8.5 miles of roads and upgrade another 24 miles of roads, to include roadside drainage. Because there are so many variables to consider, it is difficult to separate them to arrive at exact costs estimates per mile of maintenance. However, the overall budgeted amount divided by the stated goals of the County indicate $257,609 in general per linear mile. New construction costs are extremely higher and unpredictable due to planning and design, engineering and permitting, and right-of-way acquisition. Market fluctuations and global demand for material also impact estimated and actual costs.

The extent to which the County government can or will affect the utilization of land in regards to road capacity in the future has yet to be determined. However, it is the intent of this Element to act as a guide for future land use planning, meaning the information

provided here needs to be considered before making short or long term planning decisions.

Land use can be defined as the occupation or utilization of land for any human activity or purpose. As an extension of land use, zoning determines the intensity of any given use. Zoning is a government regulation that was developed to protect lower impact uses (and the people who engage in those uses) for instance housing, from higher impact uses, such as industry and commerce. Zoning is a legislative land-based tool, which is founded on the police power as defined by the Fifth and Fourteenth Amendments of the United States Constitution. In 1988, Horry County government completely zoned the contiguous land area. Little was known about the consequences of the "blanket" approach that was taken in some areas. Large swaths of the County were placed into broad zoning classifications that allowed a great many uses. One of the broadest classifications is the Forest Agriculture (FA) district that exists throughout many parts of the County to this day. This "catch all" classification allows for all sorts of uses on half acre lots or greater. While the intensity of the land is clear (.5 acre lots), the use is not. The intent of the district is to allow for the utilization of the land "for agriculture, forestry, and low-density; residential, commercial, social, cultural, recreational, and religious uses". Here the issue is clear, the district dictates intensity and not actual use.

The 1988 decision to "blanket" zone the entire County created an atmosphere in which comprehensive planning was undermined. The original FA zoning classification did not consider future population growth nor long-range land use needs as seen by the vague intent above. Without a clear objective (land use), the County has been experiencing explosive growth while having little idea of the effects such growth has had on the natural environment, infrastructure, the economy and quality of life. The 1988 zoning action was required by State legislation regardless of the actual consequences, be they positive or negative in regards to long-range planning and land use. While the result was a complete undermining of land use planning, the intent was noble. The reason for the action went beyond mere State requirements. It was also intended to set in motion the process of long range planning. Without zoning, the ultimate use and intensity of land within the County was unknown. The genius of the FA district is the simple fact that it allows a great many uses, meaning few could argue against the zoning classification because property owners still had a variety of possibilities at their disposal.

Since 1988, the County Planning Department has seen a shift from the broad categorization of uses captured in the FA district to more precise classifications that not only accommodate a refined measure of intensity, but also a particular set of uses. Many of the rezonings that the County has processed since 2002 came in as FA, CFA or LFA. In fact, since 2002 there have been a total of 205 rezoning cases, totaling 6,992 acres, specifically requesting a zoning designation other than the original FA classification for the property. This represents 47.5% of all rezoned acres in the County since 2002, and approximately 26% of all rezoning cases combined. All but six of the 205 have requested a form of residential zoning, with the majority (109) granted a suburban residential classification that caps parcel size at 10,000 square feet.

Because zoning is an extension of land use, the data captured here is an indication of the rate at which the County has been transitioning from rural to urban, from natural to built environment. It is informative in that it represents the physical manifestations of population growth, and the effects such growth has had on the land. It is also indicative of the need for a continued push towards a comprehensive approach to future planning endeavors; the primary objective of this Plan.

Since 2002, 14,703 acres of the County have been rezoned to accommodate some other use or intensity than that which was initially allowed by the original zoning. In 2006, a sharp increase in both the number of rezonings and the amount of acreage involved was seen by the Planning Department. A shrinking supply of readily available land for residential development purposes over this five-year period may be the cause. Beginning in 2002, it is possible that the supply of land was keeping pace with demand. By 2006, it seems that the supply had dwindled to the point where development interests saw the need to begin a rezoning frenzy to boost supply. The table below tracks the estimated population growth during these years. It is clear that sustained growth was occurring during this time. In fact, there was a 9.8% increase in the overall population from 2002 through 2006.

Source: Woods & Poole Economic, Inc. Washington D.C. 2005

The table below backs the assertion that the continued population growth has lead to a decrease in the available supply of land for residential building purposes. The 2006 rezonings have the potential to create more than 23,000 additional housing units, more than the potential of 2003 through 2005 combined.

The information above is indicative of the growth that has occurred in the County. It begins to inform decision makers of the possible effects of population growth in the future. According to future projections, the population is expected to grow by 14,424, or 12% by the year 2011. If the past five years of rezoning information is any indication of

what will happen in the future, it is possible that the current number of rezonings and the acreage involved will be the status quo for the next five years.

While zoning speaks to potential, building permits speak to the actual transition of land from one use to the next. Building permit data is a significant contributor to the current land use analysis because it tracks the manifestations of population growth. The effects of growth are captured by physical and psychological changes to the environment in which we live, work and play. When a building is erected, the change in land use is obvious. As such, building permits reflect the physical manifestations of population growth and its effects in regards to land use. The following tables track these effects from 1990 through 2004.

Incredible population growth from 1990 through 2004 resulted in an equally tremendous amount of issued building permits during the same period. The table above illustrates exponential growth in building permits in five-year increments. Population growth, shown in the table below, created a demand for residential and commercial developments in the late 90’s. Since 2000, the development community has been busy, doubling the amount of permits issued in the 1990’s in a matter of five years. The consequence of this growth has been swift urbanization in areas such as the U.S. 501 and 707 corridors, as well as large tracts of land such as Carolina Forest (See Appendix).

Based on the table below detailing building permit issuances between 1989 and early 2007, Horry County’s undeveloped land area decreased by 12,261 acres (19.16 square miles) due to newly permitted residential land uses, by an additional 6,603 acres (10.32 square miles) for new commercial uses, 90 acres for additional industrial uses, and by another 1,314 acres (2.05 square miles) in the wake of institutional land uses. This is a 2:1 ratio. For every permitted acre that is directly related to a job (commercial, insitutional, industrial) 2 acres are permitted for residential use.

Population growth from 1988 through 2006 equaled 89,250. The number of people employed increased by 60,100 during this same time period. In regards to residential land use, the increase in population (89,250) resulted in 12,261 permitted acres, meaning that an increase of 100 people resulted in an average of 13.73 acres of permitted residential use over this 18-year period. As for employment, combining commercial, institutional and industrial uses resulted in 8,007 additional acres of permitted land for employment purposes. This also can be interpreted that as an increase in 100 employees resulted in 13.32 acres of employment related land use. Combining all uses, 22.4 acres of land were permitted for each increase of 100 in the population.

In all, over 20,000 acres of land have been permitted in the 18-year period from 1988 - 2006. It is important to note that permitted acres do not equal developed acres as a large tract of land can and are permitted whenever new construction occurs.

Nonetheless, the permit information above is intended to be a broad analysis of the overall land use changes that have occurred in the recent past in Horry County. The analysis on building permits and rezonings is especially helpful in discussing how the land is being used currently.

The purpose of the Land Use Element is to encourage the orderly and efficient distribution of land uses in the County in the future. An accurate and timely inventory of land use data is vitally important when considering the population increase that has occurred over the past 20 years and the growth that is projected to occur through 2025. The significant population increase that Horry County has seen in the previous three decades is projected to continue unabated over the next 18 years. With a population growth of 15.4% or 30,363 people between the years 2000 and 2005 alone, the continued influx of new residents and visitors is creating a sustained demand for residential, commercial and institutional development throughout the County. With an additional 111,000 people by 2025, or approximately 48% of our current population, the demand for land will continue to increase while the supply continues to decrease.

It is important to establish a base measurement when discussing land use. The Current Land Use Map, included in this section, is a graphic representation of how the land is used. In all, the map includes residential, sales and service, industrial, institutional, mixed, rural conservation, conservation/preservation, recreation and entertainment, utility, and public and government land use categories. The map also includes road right-of-ways and major water features. The current land use map is an important tool that assists in understanding how past growth has impacted the physical nature of the County, and for understanding how future growth will impact natural resources, established neighborhoods, commercial corridors, agricultural areas and the transportation network. The following is a description of land use categories included in the current land use map:

Conservation/Preservation

Lands classified in this category are permanently protected areas of natural and man made landscapes. Ownership is typically in the form of a government (Federal, State, Regional, local) or non-profit. Land in this category may be within a conservation easement, and many of these properties are used for active and passive recreational purposes. Boat landings, playgrounds, community parks, beach access points, State parks and ball fields are a small sampling of active and passive recreation areas. Some of the lands in this category are preserved because of their importance in regards to natural processes (Carolina bays, wetlands, ocean front and heritage preserves). Other lands serve a government purpose such as spoilage basins, the Myrtle Beach International Airport, fire towers and educational centers.

Rural Conservation

This land use category includes a range of agricultural, commercial, industrial and residential uses in which the intensity of development is limited due to the large size of each parcel. Rural conservation describes parcels greater than 10 acres in size that provide for agricultural and/or agricultural related uses which preserve the character of

rural lands. These lands are intended to have very low densities, averaging one (1) unit every ten acres, meaning a majority of the tract is left in a natural state.

Rural Residential

Scattered large lot residential uses between one (1) and ten (10) acres in size. Rural residential uses are found throughout the County, and the classification of "rural" is based on the intensity of development per lot, the lack of continuous city services such as water and sewer, and the degree to which the natural state of a parcel is left intact. Dwelling units include detached single-family homes, mobile homes and manufactured housing.

Suburban Residential

This land use provides for a range of residential properties with lot sizes larger than 6,200 square feet and smaller than one (1) acre. Dwelling units include detached single-family homes, duplexes, triplexes, multiplexes, mobile homes and manufactured housing.

Urban Residential

This land use describes all residential properties with lot sizes smaller than 6,200 square feet. Included in the category are all single and multi-family housing regimes such as attached and detached single-family homes, duplexes, triplexes, multiplexes, townhouses, apartments and condominiums.

Mixed

Any lands that mix residential, commercial and/or industrial uses are included in this category. The mixed-use category includes a variety of uses and intensities. Uses commonly found in this category include rural to urban residential, retail establishments, office buildings, educational facilities, recreational facilities and other public amenities.

Sales and Service

This land use category consists of a variety of retail and office uses such as medical offices, administrative facilities, shopping centers, restaurants and auto oriented businesses. Sales and services generally follow major transportation corridors. When these uses congregate, they form commercial centers ranging from strip developments to regional shopping destinations.

Recreation and Entertainment

This land use category includes all activities associated with a transient population including hotels and restaurants. The category also includes all recreation and entertainment based businesses such as golf courses, movie theaters, bowling alleys, health spas, marinas and amusement parks.

Industrial

This land use category provides for industrial land uses that serve the residents of Horry County. The industrial land use category includes both light and heavy industries typically connected with manufacturing, assembly, processing or storage of products.

Public and Government

The land use includes all facilities, structures, and lands that are owned, leased, or operated by a government entity or the private sector for use by the public.

Utilities

This land use includes all facilities, structures, and lands that are owned, leased, or operated by a government entity, authority or the private sector that are used to provide a public service such as water, electricity, telephone and waste services.

Institutional

This land use includes all facilities, structures, and lands that are owned, leased, or operated by a tax-exempt entity excluding government and utilities. Schools, churches, hospitals, colleges, organized establishments, foundations, societies and other non-profit organizations are included in the category.

The Current Land Use Map is captured and detailed in the following analysis. The Map is a visual companion to the data and represents the relationship between land uses. It is a means to conveniently display overall development patterns and influential factors that have shaped the built and natural environments. Included in the map are all of the land use categories above as well as roads and major water bodies. A larger copy of the map is included in the Appendix of this document as well. The Map is a tool that assists with establishing where future growth and development can potentially occur, and is therefore the basis for the analysis below and the Future Land Use section of this Element.

Horry County is a large landmass (1,133 square miles) that has seen a significant amount of urbanization since 1990. The majority of Horry County in light of this urbanization however is rural according to the land use definitions described and cataloged above. Of the more than 700,000 acres of land area, 84.33% is defined as large-tract land areas with little to no human activity. This percentage is obtained when combining the Conservation/Preservation Lands, Rural Conservation and Rural Residential land use categories. Removing the Rural Residential land use from this calculation yields 76.52% of the County as "rural". Rural for purposes of this analysis is defined as a physical measure and/or ownership. Conserved Lands are those that are owned by a government or non-profit entity that intends to keep the land permanently protected against development. Rural Conservation is a land use that was internally devised as a means to capture those areas greater than 10 acres that have a land use and zoning classification that is currently not conducive to urban or suburban development patterns.

Residential land uses constitute the majority of development in Horry County and across the United States. Of all land uses, residential is the most malleable. Small fluctuations in interest rates, land use regulations and growth rates affect this land use more than perhaps any other for the simple reason that it is the most consuming of space and demanding of services. The ratios of residential rezoning cases to all others from 2002 through 2006 were approximately 45%, 64%, 41%, 48% and 56% respectively. Residential development equaled 97% of all building permits issued over the same time period. The table below details the ratios of current residential development patterns.

As the land area of the County continues to shift from rural to urban so will the residential population. This means that the ratio of rural residential will decrease as the population in urban areas continues to grow and demand a suburban and urban lifestyle. The table below identifies this shift using the current rural, suburban and urban land use categories and building permit data from 2000 through 2006.

Since 2000, the ratio of rural residential building permits to all other residential permits has decreased by 5.1%. Suburban residential permits have decreased by 10.2%, while urban building permits have increased by 15.3%. Growth in the number of urban residential units has outpaced growth in suburban and rural residential. The following graph indicates that the population shift from rural to urban over the past 7 years has been significant.

The number of households in Horry County in 2025 is projected to be 143,950. This is a substantial increase when considering the estimated number of households for 2006 is 96,340. An additional 47,610 households will mean that the shift from rural to urban will continue. The extent to which this shift will occur is unknown, as too many variables exist to accurately project how many households will be absorbed according to the defined land uses. It is safe to say however that as the County becomes even more urbanized, opportunities for locating new households in rural areas will become rare. It is imperative that future planning endeavors seek a means to protect encroachment of urban development into those areas where the rural lifestyle is preferred.

employment for each sector to 2025. The final column in the table lists the increase by sector from 2006 to 2025.

According to the current land use table, 34.59 acres of the County land area is consumed per 100 employees in the Wholesale Trade, Retail Trade, Finance, Insurance and Real Estate (FIRE), and Services industries. The following table projects this data to 2025 and assumes that the current land consumption rate remains static.

An additional 10,017 acres of land for "Sales and Service" and "Recreation and Entertainment" uses will be needed by the year 2025. This calculation does not consider teardowns and reinvestment however, both of which occur regularly in heavily populated tourist areas such as the beachfront and golf courses. Indeed, the recent golf course closings and new high-rise development are signals of a shift in the tourist industry. Several golf courses have closed to make way for residential units to meet the increasing demand for housing by an indigenous population. Leading the population increase are retirees and investors from the northern United States. Modern building along the oceanfront indicates a market shift from the conventional standard of providing lodging and recreational opportunities for the working class to a more sophisticated consumer in search of high end products. A counterargument to this line of logic however is that the tourist industry is meeting a natural market demand by the high-end consumer, meaning the supply is also increasing. Nonetheless, the tourism industry has and will continue to be a staple of the local economy. With the current push to attract more visitors to the region, the use of land for this purpose will continue to increase.

Manufacturing related land use is captured by the "Industry" category in the Current Land Use table above. The current employment in this sector of the economy is well below the State and National average as detailed in the Economic Element of this Plan.

Indeed, 2005 employment ratios for this sector in the State and County economies equaled 17.33% and 5.29% respectively. This proportional discrepancy in 2025 for the State and County is 13.6% and 3.9% respectively. In terms of land use, the "Industry" classification captures a mere 0.46%, or 3,255 acres of total land in the County. Using the 2006 estimated employment in the manufacturing sector to determine acres consumed per 100 employees equals 51.34. Projecting this number to 2025 yields small employment growth, approximately 1,000 additional employees, for a total land consumption of 3,763 acres.

The "Public and Government" land use category consumes 0.23% or 1,631 acres of the total County land area. Horry County, federal and State agencies, and local municipalities are represented in this classification. The "Institutional" land use category captures a wide variety of activities normally associated with churches, hospitals, schools, and some specific government and public functions such as libraries and fire stations. This land use classification totals 8,581 acres or 1.22% of the County. The "Utility" land use classification includes service providers such as Grand Strand Water and Sewer Authority and Horry Telephone Cooperative, and accounts for 2,874 acres or 0.41% of the County total. Together, these land use classifications consume 1.86% or 13,086 acres of total land area in the County. All three of these classifications are similar in that they provide public services yet are not for profit businesses. Land use consumption is closely tied to population growth, as residents, businesses and visitors require emergency services, management of public lands, water and sewer, administrative functions and garbage disposal. The following table projects possible land use consumption of these three land uses based on population estimates.

The current land use analysis and inventory has detailed the extent to which human activities, natural resources, political decisions and population growth have influenced the landscape and spatial organization of Horry County. Many factors will continue to influence land use in the future. Economics, natural resources, social values, politics,

infrastructure, population growth, cultural traditions and historical trends all have had a significant, and sometimes difficult to capture, influence on land use. This will continue to be the norm in the future as the County looks to accommodate an increasing population and a shrinking supply of land. An additional 111,000 people means urban areas will continue to expand. The transportation network will need to be maintained and capacity increased. Protection of wetland systems, drainage basins and natural resource areas will continue to be critical in regards to quality of life for the future population for a myriad of reasons. Schools, solid waste disposal, emergency services and other government service capacities will need to be increased to meet the demand of the future population. Quality job growth and wages need to increase as well to keep up with cost of living, and the diversity of employment in the County will need to be promoted in order to expand industries that have a disproportionate representation in the local economy. In all, the future is full of potential and a myriad of opportunities. As the population continues to grow, Horry County must continue to plan to ensure the continued health, safety and welfare of residents, businesses and visitors.